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从“单独二孩”政策执行效果看未来生育政策的选择
单独二孩 普遍二孩 生育率 出生人口
2016/3/1
国家卫生和计划生育委员会公布“到2014年底全国有106.9万对单独夫妇申请再生育”，国家统计局也公布“2014年我国出生人口为1687万，比2013年多出生47万”，有学者根据这两个数据得出“单独二孩”政策“基本符合预期”的结论。但文章认为“单独二孩”政策存在“遇冷”问题，“基本符合预期”的判断是不合适的；调整生育政策的真正“预期”应该是使生育率回升到更替水平甚至更替水平以上。
从家庭和妇女的视角看生育和计划生育
家庭 妇女 生育需求 计划生育
2016/3/1
每个家庭对生育有自己的需求、计划和决策，妇女是生育的主体。在中国低生育率的背景下，家庭的生育需求和妇女的生育决策主导着生育行为与结果。文章认为，在生育政策的调整和完善的过程中，需要从家庭、妇女的角度考虑政策取向。尽管家庭生育数量的变化和差别仅在于一个或两个孩子之间，但公共政策应重视家庭需求，有利于家庭有计划地安排生育，并营造育儿友好的社会环境，以及制定相应的政策支持妇女实现家庭和事业的平衡。
The Gender Consequences ofthe Demographic Dividend: An Assessment ofthe Macro and Micro Linkages between the Demographic Transition and Economic Development
Gender consequences Age composition economic development
2015/1/22
The demographic transition causes the age composition of a population to evolve in a more or less predictable manner, but what are the social consequences? Macro economists focus on the ageprofiles of...
How Does Family Planning Promote Development? : Evidence from a Social Experiment in Matlab, Bangladesh – 1977-1996
Family Planning Promote Development
2015/1/22
If a social welfare program reduces the private costs of assessing, adopting, and using birth control, fertility is expected to decline. But by how much will fertility decline, for how long, among whi...
生育政策调整研究中存在的问题与反思
单独二孩政策 孩次递进 生育政策调整 出生堆积
2016/3/1
文章对生育政策调整研究过程中存在的基础数据、数学模型、参数假设的问题及研究结果的争论与分歧进行了探讨，指出中国现有人口普查、抽样调查数据在生育水平、独生子女总量、育龄妇女总量与结构等方面存在比较突出的矛盾和偏差。作者认为宏观人口模型并不适于单独二孩等生育政策调整研究，建议采用微观随机人口仿真模型解决数据质量和区间估计问题。文章进一步分析单独二孩生育政策和全面二孩生育政策可能存在的出生人口堆积情况，...
文章在分析了单独二孩政策下流动人口的二孩生育意愿后发现，不足15%的流动人口、约22%的单独人群明确表示要生育二孩。单独（尤其是丈夫为独生子）、已育一女的人二孩生育意愿分别强于双独和双非、已育一子的人；若丈夫是独生子且育有一女，则二孩生育意愿高于其他人群。由此可得出两点初步结论：一是低于更替水平的生育意愿已成为一种“新常态”，政策调整虽可能释放出一定的生育潜能，但难以使生育意愿出现较强反弹；二是对...
Socioeconomic status and fertility before, during, and after the demographic transition: An introduction
adjustment fertility transition innovation-diffusion social class
2014/12/2
Background: Despite a long interest in the historical fertility transition, there is still a lack of knowledge about disaggregated patterns that could help us understand the mechanisms behind the tran...
Male fertility in Greece: Trends and differentials by education level and employment status
decomposition education employment status Greece male fertility
2014/12/2
Background: More than downplayed, the role of men in the demographic analysis of reproduction has been entirely neglected. However, male fertility can be an important issue for exploring how economic ...
Age-specific fertility by educational level in the Finnish male cohort born 1940‒1950
age-specific rates childlessness cohort analysis educational differences fertility rate fertility timing life course male fertility parity progression ratio
2014/12/2
Background: Education is positively associated with completed fertility rate (CFR) among men in Nordic countries, but the age patterns of fertility by educational level are poorly documented. Moreover...
The impact of grandparental investment on mothers’ fertility intentions in four European countries
childcare emotional support evolutionary theory fertility intention Generations and Gender Surveys grandparents
2014/12/2
Background: Evolutionary theory predicts that grandparental investment should support the childbearing of adult children, but evidence from contemporary developed countries is mixed or relatively weak...
Exploring the population implications of male preference when the sex probabilities at birth can be altered
population sex
2014/11/27
The ‘laboratory’ is a closed, stable population with five age groups and a dynamic
process represented by a compact Leslie matrix. The new element is sex-selective
abortion. We consider nine stopp...
Pregnancy scares and subsequent unintended pregnancy
pregnancy scare unintended pregnancy
2014/11/27
Background: A substantial number of young women experience pregnancy scares - thinking they might be pregnant, and later discovering that they are not. Although pregnancy scares are distressing events...
Stillbirth incidence in Spain: A comparison of native and recent immigrant mothers
birth weight education immigration maternal age parity stillbirth
2014/11/27
Background: This analysis focuses on determining differences in the risk of stillbirth in Spain by comparing native and foreign mothers with regard to bio-demographic factors.Methods: The study is bas...
Varying association between education and second births in Europe: Comparative analysis based on the EU-SILC data
comparative analysis education Europe fertility hazard modeling second births
2014/11/27
Background: Previous research has shown considerable variation in the relationship between women’s educational attainment and second births in contemporary Europe. A negative association is found in s...
Exploring the population implications of male preference when the sex probabilities at birth can be altered
male preference population effects selective abortion sex ratio stopping rules
2014/11/27
Objective: The paper explores the population effects of male preference stopping rules and of alternative combinations of fertility rates and male-biased birth sex ratios.Methods: The ‘laboratory’ is ...