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This paper examines the time-varying conditional correlations of daily European equity market returns during the Irish sovereign debt crisis. A dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH...
During emergencies, emotions greatly affect human behaviour. For more realistic multi-agent systems in simulations of emergency evacuations, it is important to incorporate emotions and their effects o...
The possibility of contagion in currency crises across countries is highly topical, to say the least. Though the phenomenon is widely discussed, and is supported by solid empirical evidence1, construc...
Three experiments investigated the phenomenon of war contagion in the context of international relations, hypothesizing that past inter- (but not intra-) state war will facilitate future, unrelated in...
Involvements of major financial institutions in the recent financial crisis have generated renewed interests in fragilities of global financial networks among economists and regulatory authorities. In...
As part of global climate change an accelerated hydrologic cycle (including an increase in heavy precipitation) is anticipated. So, it is of great importance to be able to quantify high-impact hydrolo...
Standard credit risk models cannot explain the observed clustering of default, sometimes described as “credit contagion.” This paper provides the first empirical analysis of credit contagion via direc...
Abstract: The recent financial crisis of 2008 and the 2011 indebtedness of Greece highlight the importance of understanding the structure of the global financial network. In this paper we set out to a...
firms which may default directly or may be infected by other defaulting firms (a domino effect being also possible). The spontaneous default without external influence and the infections are described...
We study multiple defaults where the global market information is modelled as progressive enlargement of filtrations. We shall provide a general pricing formula by establishing a relationship between ...
By 1900 scientific breakthroughs revealed that bovine tuberculosiswas a serious and growing threat to animal and human health. Early private and state initiatives in the U.S. to address the problem we...

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